Yesterday, a new study on the effects of climate change on the arctic has been published in the journal Nature Climate Change. As agreed by the contract of Paris, global warming shall not exceed 1.5 degree Celsius, which could reduce the likelihood of an ice-free Arctic summer to only 30 percent by the year 2100 as the scientists have drawn their conclusions.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has run several simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with warming scenarios ranging from 1.5 degrees Celsius all the way to 4 degrees Celsius. The results have been dramatically: There is a high probability – almost 100 percent – of having three-months ice free summers in the Arctic in 2100 with the scenario of 4 degrees Celsius global warming. The image of starving polar bears has been used to picture the immediate effects of global warming by media, but also far-reaching consequences have to expected, e.g. extreme weather events, changes in ocean currents and transforming local climates.
If we are able to reduce our carbon emission by the end of this century, the changes are good to minimize negative effects on our environment and reaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal. However, until that happens, plenty still remains to be done. So, please do your part by acting in a responsible and sustainable manner.